Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing November 13, 2026. The 9¢ price reflects a 9% probability for Guerrero Jr.
Analysis
The 9¢ price reflects a 9% probability for Guerrero Jr. to win 2026 AL MVP, but the extreme 1,752% implied yield on the yes side signals either severe mispricing or illiquidity-driven distortion given the modest $101.4 daily volume and wide 12¢ spread. The 799% realized volatility and recent 2¢ price decline over seven days suggest this market lacks conviction, with the neutral regime score and low 0.4/h information arrival rate indicating minimal fundamental developments are driving pricing in the 211 days until resolution.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xd32610daf92000af8a7e4a10cdd1962f90450e42c0e05511e9e2cde3142f5b9b yes 100