Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing May 5, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with a 7-cent price that has collapsed 42% over seven days, paired with an astronomical 26,981% implied yield on the Yes side—a classic sign of either a broken contract or near-certain resolution against Sheahan.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with a 7-cent price that has collapsed 42% over seven days, paired with an astronomical 26,981% implied yield on the Yes side—a classic sign of either a broken contract or near-certain resolution against Sheahan. The 6-cent spread is unusually wide relative to the 7-cent price, and with only 18 days until the May 5 primary and just $64.53 in 24-hour volume against $11.4M open interest, liquidity is severely constrained, suggesting most positions are trapped. The 1,980% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 13 indicate this market has experienced violent repricing, likely driven by recent political developments in OH-09 that have made a Sheahan nomination outcome extremely unlikely.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Trade
sf trade 0xd423a5d9202016fba92b69fcc65e64b652f7bd0a3ff90a467a3b9981c1ba40bf yes 100