Will Rob Thomson win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,063.95 open interest, combined with a massive 85¢ bid-ask spread that inflates the 196% implied yield on the Yes side—suggesting the 43¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 7-day price surge from 32¢ to 43¢ coupled with extraordinarily high realized volatility (5,999%) and a vol ratio of 21.56 indicates sporadic, outsized trades are driving movement rather than fundamental shifts in Thomson's managerial performance or odds. With 247 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a thin, speculative market where any modest trade can swing prices dramatically.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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