Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

The Republican Wisconsin governor contract is pricing in a heavily Democratic-favored race at just 16¢, but the extreme 958% implied yield on the Yes side combined with modest $0.34 daily volume and $17.2M open interest suggests thin liquidity is inflating the payout potential rather than reflecting genuine conviction in GOP odds. The 704% realized volatility and 1.96 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced significant price swings, yet the 7-day movement from 17¢ to 16¢ shows recent stability, making the outsized yield figures potentially misleading given the low trading activity and wide bid-ask dynamics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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