OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?

The market is pricing a 37% probability that OpenAI's IPO closing market cap exceeds $1.4T, implying a valuation roughly 2-3x current private market estimates, which explains the asymmetric 99.7% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus 34.4% on "No." The extremely high realized volatility of 219% and vol ratio of 1.99 suggest significant uncertainty around IPO timing and valuation, while the thin $236 daily volume and $1.94M open interest indicate low liquidity for a binary event 624 days out. The stable 7-day price action and neutral regime score suggest the market is currently balanced, though the 2-cent spread is relatively tight given the long time horizon and execution risk inherent in any IPO outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

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