Will the Republican Party win the LA-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a Republican probability of just 5¢ despite LA-02 being a historically competitive district, generating an extraordinary 3,468.9% implied yield on the Yes side. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $17,630 open interest and a perfect 0¢ spread suggests illiquidity is masking this valuation disconnect, and the recent price decline from 6¢ to 5¢ over seven days indicates weak conviction among the few active traders. With 200 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this market carries significant tail risk and may represent either a genuine mispricing opportunity or reflect information about candidate quality/fundraising not yet reflected in broader polling.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade