Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Denkov's odds have risen 12.5% over the past week to 27¢, suggesting growing market confidence in his candidacy despite relatively thin liquidity at $14.8k open interest and modest $240 daily volume. The extreme 434.8% implied yield on "Yes" positions indicates substantial underpricing risk or high uncertainty about his viability, though the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional bias. With 227 days until the November 2026 election and a tight 3¢ spread, this market appears to be pricing in Denkov as a long-shot contender, but the low volume warrants caution on position sizing given potential slippage.

Resolution rules

Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade