Will the Republican Party win the AL-05 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as overwhelming favorites at 91% to retain Alabama's 5th congressional district, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (18.1% for Yes versus 1845.5% for No) signal severe illiquidity with only $200 in 24-hour volume against $17.3M open interest. The 1¢ spread and neutral regime score suggest the market is relatively stable, but the 10/10 Cliff Risk Index indicates this thin liquidity could produce sharp price swings if new information emerges before the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade