Will the Democratic Party win the FL-24 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided Democratic lean at 93¢, pricing in a 13.7% annualized yield for YES holders but an extraordinary 2424.5% implied yield for NO positions, indicating severe illiquidity and mispricing on the No side. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $15,726.53 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggest this is a stale, low-liquidity market where the extreme No yield likely reflects the difficulty of actually shorting a 93% consensus rather than genuine probability. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this market may warrant monitoring for any significant political developments in FL-24 that could move the needle, though the current pricing appears to reflect a strong Democratic incumbent or favorable district composition.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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