Will the Republican Party win the NM-01 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing NM-01 as a heavily Democratic-favored seat at just 7¢, implying a 93% Democratic win probability, yet the asymmetric implied yields (2,458% for Yes vs. 14% for No) reveal extreme mispricing with massive upside for Republican backers if the seat flips. With zero 24-hour volume despite $17.5M open interest and a recent price decline from 8¢ to 7¢, this appears to be a stale, illiquid market where the low Republican probability may not reflect genuine conviction—the 2¢ spread and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 13 suggest potential for sharp repricing if polling or political conditions shift before the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade