Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing August 18, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2670% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus just 33% on the "No" side, suggesting Fishback is considered a heavy longshot at 10¢ despite 123 days until resolution.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2670% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus just 33% on the "No" side, suggesting Fishback is considered a heavy longshot at 10¢ despite 123 days until resolution. The 9-point cliff risk index and modest $2,989 daily volume relative to $43,961 open interest indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings if new information emerges about the Florida Republican primary field. The flat 7-day price action (9¢ to 10¢) and neutral regime score suggest the market is currently pricing in stable expectations, though the high implied yield reflects substantial uncertainty about a relatively unknown candidate's nomination prospects.
Also on kalshi at 9¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xd8b94a79241263ba30e9cd7f58e88bf2a9013ce2ccdce73606916b2f53033466 yes 100