Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?

This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario at just 3¢, implying only a 3% probability that Lula wins by the narrow 10-15% margin specified, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 6914% implied yield despite minimal 24-hour volume of $89.53. The massive spread between Yes (6914%) and No (6.6%) yields, combined with extreme realized volatility of 2121% and a high cliff risk index of 32, suggests this is a thinly-traded, speculative contract where the price may not reflect true market consensus given the $13.5M open interest concentrated in a narrow probability band. With 171 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in either a decisive Lula victory by a wider margin or a competitive multi-candidate race where no single candidate wins by 10-15%.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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