Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?

The 31¢ price implies only a 31% probability that SPX closes below $6,000 by end-2026, requiring roughly a 7% decline from current levels over 258 days—a modest bearish bet reflected in the asymmetric implied yields (314.9% for Yes versus 63.6% for No). Liquidity is extremely thin with just $10 in 24-hour volume against $3,848 open interest and a 6¢ spread, creating execution risk for meaningful position sizing. The exceptionally high Yes-side yield suggests either significant mispricing or that contrarian bearish bettors are underrepresented on this venue.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Indicators

Regime

Trade