Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Polymarket, closing May 16, 2026. The UK's 24% implied probability of last place reflects moderate concern about Eurovision performance, though the extraordinarily high 4,470% implied yield on "Yes" positions suggests severe illiquidity with minimal backing for that outcome—only $1.3K in daily volume across $13.8M open interest.
Analysis
The UK's 24% implied probability of last place reflects moderate concern about Eurovision performance, though the extraordinarily high 4,470% implied yield on "Yes" positions suggests severe illiquidity with minimal backing for that outcome—only $1.3K in daily volume across $13.8M open interest. The price has surged 50% over seven days (16¢ to 24¢), indicating either deteriorating sentiment about UK prospects or speculative positioning ahead of the May 2026 contest, though with 26 days to expiry and a tight 2¢ spread, there's limited immediate arbitrage opportunity.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xda27a1ef32dfcbed0489ffbed4eb791d097364748b6cfae1c895fa3dc6165261 yes 100