Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO?

The market is pricing an extremely low 6% probability that SpaceX raises below $40B, suggesting strong consensus the company will exceed this threshold in its IPO. However, the extraordinarily high realized volatility of 3506% and modest 24-hour volume of $35.48 indicate this market suffers from severe illiquidity and price instability, making the 6¢ quote potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The wide 3¢ spread and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 16 further underscore execution challenges, though the neutral regime and steady info arrival rate (0.9/h) suggest the market is functioning despite these structural constraints.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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