Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1600.00 or higher at the end of December 2026?

This market shows a 52% probability that Argentina's official USD/ARS rate will reach 1600 or higher by end-2026, implying an annualized yield of 148% if correct, though the 38¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity concerns. The extremely high realized volatility of 1233% and vol ratio of 10.95 indicate this contract is pricing in extraordinary uncertainty around Argentine currency dynamics, likely reflecting the country's persistent inflation and peso depreciation pressures. With 258 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the market appears fairly balanced but the lack of trading activity and wide bid-ask gap make this a risky position to enter or exit.

Resolution rules

This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/). If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date. The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

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Regime

Trade