Will the Democratic Party win the WA-04 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing WA-04 as a heavily Republican-favored seat at just 14¢, implying a 1117% annualized yield for contrarian Democratic backers—an extraordinarily high return reflecting either deep Republican incumbency or recent redistricting shifts. Despite the compelling yield, liquidity is thin with only $5.88 in 24-hour volume against $25.2k open interest, and the 201-day timeframe to November 2026 creates meaningful cliff risk (index of 6), suggesting this market may experience sharp repricing as the election approaches. The 1¢ spread is tight, but the neutral regime score and massive yield differential warrant caution about whether the market is genuinely pricing Democratic chances or simply reflecting illiquidity in a low-probability contract.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade