Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing October 4, 2026. Haddad's 4¢ price reflects extreme skepticism about his 2026 prospects, with a staggering 5154% implied yield on the Yes side suggesting either deep mispricing or genuine consensus that his candidacy is highly unlikely.
Analysis
Haddad's 4¢ price reflects extreme skepticism about his 2026 prospects, with a staggering 5154% implied yield on the Yes side suggesting either deep mispricing or genuine consensus that his candidacy is highly unlikely. The market has seen sharp downward momentum over seven days (6¢ to 4¢) on solid volume of $25.9M, though the tight spread and $188M open interest indicate reasonable liquidity despite the low price. With 170 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 24, this appears to be a contrarian bet rather than a liquidity trap, though the extreme yield warrants caution about tail risk pricing.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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Trade
sf trade 0xdd3d104667774208eae2239f576122ecdd1c04ba81cc14d26d22a36b33887977 yes 100