Will the Republican Party win the MN-08 House seat?

The Republican contract is priced at 74¢ with a notably asymmetric risk profile: the "No" side offers a 517.7% implied yield versus just 63.9% for "Yes," suggesting the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty despite the high Republican probability. With $16,589 in open interest but zero 24-hour volume, this market appears illiquid and potentially stale, raising questions about whether the 74¢ price reflects current sentiment or outdated positioning. The 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election provides ample time for political developments to shift the race, and the neutral regime score (0.409) indicates the market lacks strong directional conviction despite the seemingly decisive price level.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade