MN-08 House Election Winner
Leader sits at 73% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Republican Party
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Democratic Party
Spread
46pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
137 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MN-08 House Election Winner
Analysis
The current 67% probability indicates that the leading candidate in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District is favored to win this House seat. This level reflects market expectations based on available polling, historical voting patterns, and demographic composition of the district. The probability would move higher if recent polling shows the leading candidate strengthening their position, or lower if new surveys indicate movement toward the runner-up. The general election scheduled for November 2026 is the key event that will resolve this market. Between now and then, primary results, candidate performance in debates, fundraising reports, and updated district polling will likely shift the probability as new information becomes available. The 36-point gap between the leader and runner-up suggests moderate confidence in the outcome, though substantial uncertainty remains given the typical volatility of House races and the months remaining until the election.
- ›Latest internal and public polling showing the leader's margin in MN-08 and trend direction since last major survey
- ›Primary election results or endorsements that could signal momentum shifts before the general election in November 2026
- ›Demographic and historical voting data for the district compared to statewide and national election performance trends
- ›Campaign funding and resource levels for both the leading and runner-up candidates as of the most recent FEC reporting
- ›National political environment factors that could affect House races, including approval ratings and generic ballot polling
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (73% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.