Will the Toronto Blue Jays win more than 84.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

This Blue Jays over-84.5-wins market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.7M open interest, and the 39¢ price implies only a 39% probability of exceeding 84.5 wins—a notably pessimistic outlook for a team with 171 days until resolution. The 334% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a 249% realized volatility and 13¢ spread signals high uncertainty and potential mispricing, though the neutral regime score (0.5) and modest info arrival rate (0.7/h) suggest limited new data is driving recent price movement from 41¢ to 39¢. The wide spread and zero volume make this a risky position to enter or exit, and traders should be cautious about the cliff risk given the market's illiquidity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "O 84.5" if the Toronto Blue Jays win more than 84.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the Toronto Blue Jays to record more than 84.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 84.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Regime

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