Will Leo De Vries win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an unusually wide 82¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest despite the 41¢ price offering a 231% implied yield on the yes side. The astronomical 1,846% realized volatility and 12.35 vol ratio indicate highly erratic price discovery, likely driven by sporadic trades on minimal open interest of just $1,067. With 247 days until expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in meaningful uncertainty around De Vries' 2026 rookie eligibility and performance, but the lack of liquidity makes the 41¢ quote unreliable for serious position-taking.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade