Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series?

The Padres' 4-cent price reflects an extremely low 4% win probability for the 2026 NLCS, yet the market shows exceptional liquidity with $141k in 24-hour volume and a tight 1-cent spread, suggesting strong trader interest despite the long odds. The astronomical 4409% implied yield on the Yes side indicates substantial profit potential if San Diego advances, though this is offset by the team's current competitive positioning and the extended 199-day timeframe to resolution. The neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest the market has settled on this valuation, though the 24 Cliff Risk Index warrants monitoring for potential volatility as the 2026 season progresses.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 National League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 National League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 National League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade