Will the Republican Party win the MA-07 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2,416.8% implied yield on the Republican side, reflecting near-zero liquidity ($0 in 24h volume) despite $38.8K open interest. MA-07 is a heavily Democratic district (Cook PVI D+13), making the 7¢ Republican price arguably generous, yet the astronomical yield and 13 Cliff Risk Index suggest the market may be illiquid enough that any modest position could move prices dramatically. With 201 days to expiry, there's substantial time for the market to normalize, but current conditions indicate this is more a liquidity trap than a genuine pricing opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade