Will the Republican Party win the MO-01 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with Republicans trading at just 8¢ despite MO-01 being a safely Republican district (Trump won it by 30+ points in 2020), creating a stratospheric 2099% implied yield on the Yes side that far exceeds the 15.9% yield on No. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $22,788 open interest and a 2¢ spread suggests illiquidity is preventing arbitrage, while the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 12 indicates potential for sharp repricing as we approach the November 2026 election. This appears to be a classic case of a mispriced long-tail outcome where the true probability of Republican victory likely exceeds 85-90%, making the current 8¢ price an attractive contrarian opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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