Will the Democratic Party win the NV-03 House seat?

This NV-03 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.75M open interest, suggesting the $1,753 spread may not reflect true consensus pricing. The 891% realized volatility and 608% risk-adjusted implied yield on the "No" side indicate wild price swings that likely reflect thin order books rather than genuine uncertainty about Democratic prospects in this district. With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, this market appears to be a low-activity positioning trade rather than an active discovery mechanism, making the 77¢ price potentially unreliable for serious forecasting.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade