Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

The 9¢ price reflects a heavily discounted probability for Zelenskyy winning in 2026, despite his prominent role in the Ukraine conflict and previous Nobel consideration. The extreme implied yield of 2097% on the Yes side signals either deep skepticism about his chances or potential mispricing, though the high realized volatility (1340%) and cliff risk index (10) suggest significant uncertainty and possible tail-risk dynamics around geopolitical developments. With $52.1M open interest and steady 24-hour volume of $2.3M, liquidity appears adequate, though the 7-day price stability (8¢ to 9¢) indicates the market has largely priced in consensus expectations as of now.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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