Will Rhett Marques be the Republican nominee for AL-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 54% probability that Will Rhett Marques be the Republican nominee for AL-01?. This contract trades at 54¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $1.17M, with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 44¢ spread indicating thin order books.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $1.17M, with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 44¢ spread indicating thin order books. The price has collapsed 40% over seven days (56¢ to 40¢), yet the implied yield remains stratospheric at 1,896% for YES positions, suggesting either severe mispricing or anticipated resolution uncertainty. With only 33 days to the May 19 primary and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, this contract faces imminent expiration with minimal trading activity, making it a speculative position rather than a liquid market.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xe362c2c6604f2c23b9a3512ea42e4459d72dd4350a602482f044114bb92bca81 yes 100