Will Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $733k open interest, paired with a massive 39¢ bid-ask spread and extraordinarily high implied yields (252.8% for Yes, 348.4% for No), suggesting thin order books and significant uncertainty pricing. The 434% realized volatility and 2.63 vol ratio indicate this is a highly unstable market where small trades could move prices dramatically, making the 54¢ midpoint potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. With 123 days to the August 18, 2026 primary and an info arrival rate of 1.1 events per hour, this market appears to be in early-stage discovery with limited participant conviction, making it risky for position-taking until liquidity improves.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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