Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity despite a massive 93-cent Democratic lean, with zero 24-hour volume on $17k open interest and a stark asymmetry in implied yields (13.7% for Yes versus 2424.5% for No), suggesting the No side is severely underpriced or represents pure tail-risk hedging. The 1-cent spread and stable price over 7 days indicate the market has settled into a stagnant equilibrium with minimal new information flow, though the 200-day timeline to the 2026 midterms should theoretically attract more trading activity as the election approaches. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 13 combined with the neutral regime score suggests potential for sharp repricing if polling or political conditions shift, making this a high-risk venue for position-taking despite the seemingly comfortable Democratic probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade