Will the Republican Party win the MA-05 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2,859% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting Republicans have virtually no chance in this heavily Democratic Massachusetts district—a reasonable assessment given MA-05's strong Democratic lean. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $30,944 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates illiquidity despite the high yield, meaning any actual capital deployment would likely move prices significantly. With 200 days to expiration and a cliff risk index of 16, this appears to be a "belief market" where the 6¢ price reflects consensus rather than active trading, making it less reliable for arbitrage opportunities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade