Will the Democratic Party win the CO-08 House seat?

The Democratic favorite in CO-08 is priced at 71¢ with moderate liquidity ($8.4k open interest) and a wide 8¢ spread, but the No side offers an extreme 444.6% implied yield versus just 74.2% for Yes, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk hedging. With 201 days to expiry, the market shows elevated realized volatility (289%) and a high vol ratio (3.57), indicating substantial uncertainty despite the Democratic lean, though the low 24-hour volume of just $15 raises concerns about price discovery reliability. The neutral regime and steady 70¢-to-72¢ price movement over seven days suggest the market hasn't yet incorporated major campaign developments or polling shifts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade