Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

The market is pricing an extremely low 9% probability for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by mid-2026, with a sharp 25% price decline over seven days suggesting deteriorating sentiment toward peace prospects. The asymmetric implied yields (4992.6% for Yes versus 48.8% for No) reflect the outsized risk-reward on the bullish side, though the modest $103K daily volume and tight 1¢ spread indicate relatively thin liquidity for a binary outcome with such high stakes. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 10 and 74-day time horizon create meaningful tail risk, particularly given geopolitical volatility could rapidly reprrice this market in either direction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

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