Will Germany come in last place at Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Germany come in last place at Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing May 16, 2026. Germany's 12-cent price reflects a modest 12% probability of last-place finish, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 9,622% on the "Yes" side signals severe illiquidity and suggests minimal conviction behind this pricing—the $11K open interest concentrated in a thin market makes this yield mathematically extreme rather than economically meaningful.
Analysis
Germany's 12-cent price reflects a modest 12% probability of last-place finish, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 9,622% on the "Yes" side signals severe illiquidity and suggests minimal conviction behind this pricing—the $11K open interest concentrated in a thin market makes this yield mathematically extreme rather than economically meaningful. The recent 20% price appreciation over seven days (10¢ to 12¢) combined with a 3-cent spread and moderate 24-hour volume of $119 indicates this is a low-liquidity niche bet where small positions can move prices substantially. With 28 days to Eurovision 2026, there's adequate time for fundamental shifts in betting sentiment, though the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional pressure currently.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xe56260c352e2cacb087bb287d5fb8ed0f138f0fe5607875af5f7bd52e4fabc90 yes 100