Will Mike Cox win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $16,378 in open interest, suggesting the 3¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus but rather stale positioning. The astronomical 10,829% implied yield on the "Yes" side indicates the market is pricing in an extraordinarily unlikely outcome—Cox winning the Republican primary—with minimal recent trading activity to validate this pricing. With 109 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 32, traders should be cautious of potential sharp repricing if Cox gains unexpected momentum or if liquidity dries up further before the August 4 resolution date.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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