Ledger IPO closing market cap above $4B?

This Ledger IPO market shows extreme volatility (434% realized vol) with a notably wide 14¢ spread despite $425k open interest, suggesting illiquidity despite the long 624-day timeframe. The 41% probability pricing implies a $4B+ valuation is moderately unlikely, though the asymmetric 84.2% annualized yield on "Yes" positions reflects the high-risk, binary nature of IPO timing and valuation outcomes. Zero 24-hour volume combined with a 4.87 vol ratio and high information arrival rate (0.9/h) indicates this market is pricing in substantial uncertainty around Ledger's IPO timeline and eventual valuation.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

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