Will Jose Soriano win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Jose Soriano win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing November 12, 2026. Jose Soriano's Cy Young odds have collapsed 37.5% over seven days from 8¢ to 5¢, suggesting deteriorating performance or injury concerns heading into the 2026 season.
Analysis
Jose Soriano's Cy Young odds have collapsed 37.5% over seven days from 8¢ to 5¢, suggesting deteriorating performance or injury concerns heading into the 2026 season. The extreme 3,307% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the massive asymmetry between the 5¢ price and potential payout, though this is offset by severe illiquidity—just $43.7 in 24-hour volume against $1.72M open interest and a 9¢ spread. The elevated realized volatility of 1,938% and cliff risk index of 19 indicate this market is highly unstable and prone to sharp repricing, making it suitable only for sophisticated traders comfortable with execution risk.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0xe7daac449fc858f5e86d8021d74cdbff190c7d13f89b96accf7cdcae87a07451 yes 100