Will Kent Benham win the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Kent Benham win the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. Kent Benham's 3¢ price reflects an extremely illiquid market with zero 24-hour volume despite $3.6M open interest, suggesting the quoted price may not reflect genuine trading demand.
Analysis
Kent Benham's 3¢ price reflects an extremely illiquid market with zero 24-hour volume despite $3.6M open interest, suggesting the quoted price may not reflect genuine trading demand. The astronomical 10,829% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic illiquidity artifact—the 4¢ spread and recent price decline from 4¢ to 3¢ indicate this is a thin, potentially stale market where small trades could move prices dramatically. With 109 days to the August 2026 primary and a moderate 32 Cliff Risk Index, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this price as a true probability estimate.
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0xe835154859611ad7d0ddc48f6a0ce1f7b7349bbbc95253921a7d3fe7ae0db410 yes 100