Will the Republican Party win the FL-24 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with Republicans priced at just 7¢ despite FL-24 being a historically competitive district, generating a nonsensical 2426.6% implied yield on the Yes side. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $17,423 open interest and a 0¢ spread suggests severe illiquidity, making the price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. With 200 days to expiration and a high cliff risk index of 13, this appears to be a thin, inactive market where the quoted price may not reflect genuine market consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade