Will Tatsuya Imai win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?

This market shows extreme distress signals with the price collapsing 87.5% over seven days (from 40¢ to 5¢) while maintaining zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the sharp decline reflects stale pricing rather than active trading. The 9¢ spread on a 5¢ price and astronomical 2,810% implied yield on the Yes side indicate severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, though the $5.8M open interest suggests meaningful historical activity. With 247 days to resolution and a realized volatility of 23,137%, this market appears to be experiencing a regime shift—likely driven by news about Tatsuya Imai's injury status or MLB prospects—making the current 5% probability potentially unreliable for serious trading.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade