Will Gerrit Cole win the 2026 AL Comeback Player of the Year award?

The market has experienced extreme volatility, with the price collapsing 55% over seven days from 32¢ to 14¢, suggesting significant negative information arrived about Cole's injury recovery prospects or competing candidates emerged. The 908.6% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the dramatic repricing, though this is paired with concerning illiquidity—just $6.09 in 24-hour volume against $1.36M open interest and a 27¢ spread—indicating the market may struggle to efficiently price new information as we approach the December 2026 resolution. The 3506% realized volatility and 15.46 vol ratio are extraordinarily high, suggesting this contract has become a speculative vehicle rather than a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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