Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026?

This market is pricing an extremely low probability (3¢) for Iranian military action against Afghanistan within 14 days, yet displays extraordinary implied yields of 85,799% on the "Yes" side—a massive asymmetry suggesting either severe mispricing or extreme tail-risk hedging activity. The $32.997 daily volume against $10.4M open interest indicates thin liquidity relative to position size, creating potential slippage concerns, while the 3,957% realized volatility and 32 Cliff Risk Index signal this contract has experienced dramatic price swings despite remaining flat at 3¢ over the past week. With only two weeks to expiry and a 1.0 information arrival rate, any geopolitical escalation between Iran and Afghanistan could trigger rapid repricing in this illiquid market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

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