Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
0xeb85e2b50d4d691325f8e906fff3ab156ad7d2b4086d7b5c19108d601969c628 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 260 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 497.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 39.6% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.09 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 289% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.32 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.4/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 453% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
15 indicator snapshots · 10 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
How to trade
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