Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?

The 60¢ price reflects moderate confidence in a Trump Turkey visit, but the market shows signs of illiquidity stress with only $67 in 24-hour volume against $3.68M open interest and a wide 9¢ spread. The extreme realized volatility of 384% and inverted yield structure (203.6% on "No" vs 98.3% on "Yes") suggest this is a thin, speculative position where the high open interest may represent trapped capital rather than active trading conviction. With 258 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in baseline diplomatic travel odds, though the 1.7 information arrivals per hour indicate modest news flow that could trigger repricing around Trump's actual 2026 schedule.

Resolution rules

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

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