Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

This market exhibits extreme mispricing dynamics with a 3940.9% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either deep skepticism about Pope Leo XIV's existence or eligibility, or significant arbitrage opportunity if the market is underpricing a papal peace prize candidacy. The 7-day price surge from 3¢ to 5¢ combined with 1349% realized volatility and a 1.91 vol ratio indicates substantial recent information arrival (0.4/h), though the 19 Cliff Risk Index flags potential resolution ambiguity around the papal succession or Nobel Committee eligibility criteria. With $90.8K open interest and $22K daily volume, liquidity is moderate but the zero spread suggests active market-making despite the unusual risk profile.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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