Will the Democratic Party win the GA-08 House seat?

This market shows extremely illiquid pricing with zero 24-hour volume despite $21k open interest, suggesting the 7¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp repricing on actual trading activity. The 2425% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high—typical of thin markets where small position sizes create distorted probability signals—while the 13-point cliff risk index indicates significant tail risk around the November 2026 resolution. With 200 days to expiry and a 2¢ spread, this appears to be a low-conviction Republican lean in GA-08 that lacks sufficient trading depth to validate the extreme odds.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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