Will the Republican Party win the CO-01 House seat?

This market is pricing Republicans at just 7 cents for Colorado's 1st District, implying a heavily Democratic lean that aligns with the district's recent voting patterns, yet the astronomical 2424.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests extreme mispricing or illiquidity concerns despite $21.6M in open interest. With zero 24-hour volume and a flat 7-day price history, the market appears frozen with minimal conviction, and the 13-point Cliff Risk Index indicates potential for sharp moves as we approach the November 2026 election—particularly if the district's political dynamics shift or if Republican recruitment efforts gain traction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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