Will Baker Mayfield win the 2026 NFL MVP?

This market shows severe illiquidity with only $13.36 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 302-day runway until expiry. The extreme 84¢ spread and 559% realized volatility suggest highly erratic pricing rather than fundamental reassessment, with the 167% implied yield on the Yes side likely reflecting the illiquidity premium rather than genuine edge. The 4.65 vol ratio and 2.0 info arrivals per hour indicate this is a thin, speculative position that would be difficult to exit at quoted prices.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2026-27 NFL season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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