Will the Democratic Party win the CO-01 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high Democratic win probability at 93¢, but the zero 24-hour volume combined with a modest $16.7k open interest suggests this is a low-liquidity market where the price may not reflect genuine conviction. The asymmetric implied yields—13.7% for Yes versus 2,426% for No—indicate severe mispricing or illiquidity on the No side, with a Cliff Risk Index of 13 suggesting potential sharp repricing as we approach the November 2026 election. The slight 1¢ decline over seven days and 200 days to expiry provide limited near-term catalysts, making this market vulnerable to sudden moves if new polling or candidate information emerges.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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