Will the Democratic Party win the UT-02 House seat?

This UT-02 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.9M open interest, creating a massive 50¢ bid-ask spread and an unusually high 498% implied yield on the Yes side that likely reflects pricing inefficiency rather than true expected value. The 3,038% realized volatility and 15x vol ratio suggest wild price swings in thin trading, with the contract doubling from 14¢ to 30¢ over seven days—a movement that warrants skepticism given the lack of recent transaction activity. With nearly 200 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this market appears vulnerable to sudden repricing once meaningful volume returns, making the current 30% Democratic probability potentially unreliable for decision-making.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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